Is the Potential for Conflict with India Something We Should Consider?
The recent student-led mass uprising in Bangladesh and the subsequent regime change have significant implications for the geostrategic calculations involving the USA, China, and India. This complex situation has multifaceted dimensions, and a thorough analysis of the potential for conflict with India necessitates a deep understanding of multidisciplinary issues.
The global geopolitical landscape has undergone a significant transformation in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has added new dimensions in war rationales, dismantled the sugar coated matrix of international relations. It reoriented the hegemonic power projection of the major countries allowing them to directly intervene in the neighboring states to ensure their strategic depth coupled with reassertion of their hegemonic aspirations. It was also Russian response to the US's aim for a unipolar world after the Soviet era.
If we want to draw an analogy, we can see that India may need to reconsider its position within the global order, particularly in the context of the US-led Chinese containment policy, where Bangladesh and the South Asian region take center stage. India may aim to establish a strategic advantage in response to seeming Chinese expansionist efforts in Myanmar towards Bangladesh, where the "Chicken Neck" area presents a crucial geostrategic limitation for India. India has clear aspirations to become a regional power, and during the Hasina regime, Bangladesh was closely aligned with India. With its rapid economic growth, significant military capability, and renewed vision of itself as a civilizational state, India is striving to emerge as a global power. However, the sudden change in regime in Bangladesh disrupted India's policy initiatives, which may dictate India to prepare for potential direct intervention.
The historical relationship between Bangladesh, India, and the United States is complex. In 1971, India's support of Bangladesh's independence from Pakistan was a significant win for Russsian-Indian policy against US strategic interests in the region. However, recent developments have led to increased US assertiveness in the region. This may be due to India's perceived inability to effectively counter China within the framework of QUAD alliance. China's growing global influence and control in the region, particularly evident in countries like Myanmar, have compelled the US to intervene more directly. This situation has placed India in a difficult position. The country must decide whether to allow enhanced US direct engagements in Bangladesh or take decisive action to ensure its own interests, potentially at the risk of undermining its relationship with the US. India faces significant challenges and risks severe consequences if it fails to address Chinese expansionist policy. On the other hand, complete US control over the region could also harm India's global aspirations. While the US-India policy disagreements may not lead to the disintegration of the QUAD alliance, India may seek to influence US policies to contain China on its own terms.
India has established cultural dominance in Bangladesh over several decades, leveraging the cultural and linguistic ties between the two countries. However, there is likely to be a significant cultural shift in the post-movement period in bangladesh, undermining Indian cultural hegemony. India's soft power is a significant tool in maintaining Indian civilizational aspirations. As a result, India may take the serious risk of intervention in the foreseeable future to ensure the preservation of Indian influence.
The Indian Union of States is currently undergoing significant changes in the dynamics of the relationship between the central government and the states. This shift is particularly evident in the northeastern states. There were tensions between insurgents in these states and the central government, as well as among their native indigenous people and migrants from other parts of India. This trend is particularly discernible in the state of Manipur, which is located to the east of Bangladesh and shares a border with Myanmar. Since May 2023, there has been a surge of violence in Manipur. In response, the Indian government has deployed 40,000 soldiers, paramilitary troops, and police to the region in an effort to quell the violence. Notably, prominent politicians across the seven sisters have made concerning statements involving the very foundation of the country, highlighting apparent deep-rooted policy tensions with the central government, a trend rarely observed before. India is facing challenges with its northeastern states and minority issues, which could be exacerbated by its unstable relationships with neighboring countries, particularly Bangladesh. Former US President once expressed that India may “pull apart” if the rights of the religious and ethnic minorities are not upheld. The recent change in regime in Bangladesh has further heightened tensions with India. The Indian government's foreign policy towards Bangladesh, which has been perceived as party-centric rather than state-centric, has contributed to negative sentiments among the Bangladeshi population. The situation has been further complicated by India's seeming support for the Hasina regime, which has led to the disenfranchisement of Bangladeshi citizens in recent elections. There are several other contentious issues between the two countries. Given these circumstances, India may face a critical decision regarding its approach to the evolving situation in Bangladesh. It may consider pursuing mutually beneficial strategies with Bangladesh to promote stability among the Seven Sister states, or it may opt for a more assertive approach to address its regional concerns.
India's economic interest in Bangladesh is significant; particularly it expanded during the Hasina regime. Both countries have concurred to initiate the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the aim of substantially boosting trade and commercial cooperation between them. A considerable number of skilled Indian nationals are employed in Bangladesh and remit a substantial amount of funds to India. The new Bangladeshi government will systematically reassess the agreements that were formed during the previous pro-Indian Hasina regime. Should Indian economic interests falter, it may prompt India to implement stringent measures.
In the post-World War II scenario, India felt emboldened to pursue its military ventures such as the invasion of Hyderabad in September 1948. This may have been influenced by the fact that many other countries were preoccupied with reorganization and reformation. More recently, India revoked Article 370 and downgraded the status of Jammu and Kashmir. This display of power was likely bolstered by the U.S.-India partnership aimed at containing China, giving India a perceived advantage in the region.
Given that, unlike the situation post-World War II, there are now international institutions and a global order in place, the likelihood of direct intervention by a regional power like India is greatly reduced. Bangladesh defense forces are well-trained and well-equipped to uphold the mission of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Additionally, in this region, the intricate triangular relationship between the USA, India, and China, coupled with the historical connections between Pakistan and Bangladesh, diminishes the likelihood of an imminent full-scale war. The future development of this intricate triangular relationship will provide further insight into the possibility and justification of such a course of action.
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